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Creators/Authors contains: "Saffer, Demian"

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  1. The Hikurangi margin has been an important global focus for subduction zone research for the last decade. International Ocean Discovery Program drilling and geophysical investigations have advanced our understanding of megathrust slip behavior. Along and across the margin, detailed imaging reveals that the megathrust structure varies spatially and evolves over time. Heterogeneous properties of the plate boundary zone and overriding plate are impacted by the evolving nature of regional tectonics and inherited overriding plate structure. Along-strike variability in thickness of subducting sediment and northward increasing influence of seamount subduction strongly influence mega-thrust lithologies, fluid pressure, and permeability structure. Together, these exert strong control on spatial variations in coupling, slow slip, and seismicity distribution. Thicker incoming sediment, combined with a compressional upper plate, influences deeper coupling at southern Hikurangi, where paleoseismic investigations reveal recurring great (Mw> 8.0) earthquakes.▪The Hikurangi Subduction Zone is marked by large-scale changes in the subducting Pacific Plate and the overlying plate, with varied tectonic stress, crustal thickness, and sediment cover.▪The roughness of the lower plate influences the variability in megathrust slip behavior, particularly where seamounts enhance subduction of fluid-rich sediments.▪Variations in sediment composition impact the strength of the subduction interface, with the southern Hikurangi Subduction Zone exhibiting a more uniform megathrust fault.▪Properties of the upper plate influence fluid pressures and contribute to the observed along-strike variations in Hikurangi plate coupling and slip behavior. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 30, 2026
  2. Whether Earth materials exhibit frictional creep or catastrophic failure is a crucial but unresolved problem in predicting landslide and earthquake hazards. Here, we show that field-scale observations of sliding velocity and pore water pressure at two creeping landslides are explained by velocity-strengthening friction, in close agreement with laboratory measurements on similar materials. This suggests that the rate-strengthening friction commonly measured in clay-rich materials may govern episodic slow slip in landslides, in addition to tectonic faults. Further, our results show more generally that transient slow slip can arise in velocity-strengthening materials from modulation of effective normal stress through pore pressure fluctuations. This challenges the idea that episodic slow slip requires a narrow range of transitional frictional properties near the stability threshold, or pore pressure feedbacks operating on initially unstable frictional slip. 
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  3. Abstract Understanding the connection between seismic activity and the earthquake nucleation process is a fundamental goal in earthquake seismology with important implications for earthquake early warning systems and forecasting. We use high-resolution acoustic emission (AE) waveform measurements from laboratory stick-slip experiments that span a spectrum of slow to fast slip rates to probe spatiotemporal properties of laboratory foreshocks and nucleation processes. We measure waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel-times (DTT) between AEs throughout the seismic cycle. AEs broadcasted prior to slow labquakes have small DTT and high waveform similarity relative to fast labquakes. We show that during slow stick-slip, the fault never fully locks, and waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel times do not evolve throughout the seismic cycle. In contrast, fast laboratory earthquakes are preceded by a rapid increase in waveform similarity late in the seismic cycle and a reduction in differential travel times, indicating that AEs begin to coalesce as the fault slip velocity increases leading up to failure. These observations point to key differences in the nucleation process of slow and fast labquakes and suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of laboratory foreshocks is linked to fault slip velocity. 
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  4. Recurring slow slip along near-trench megathrust faults occurs at many subduction zones, but for unknown reasons, this process is not universal. Fluid overpressures are implicated in encouraging slow slip; however, links between slow slip, fluid content, and hydrogeology remain poorly known in natural systems. Three-dimensional seismic imaging and ocean drilling at the Hikurangi margin reveal a widespread and previously unknown fluid reservoir within the extensively hydrated (up to 47 vol % H2O) volcanic upper crust of the subducting Hikurangi Plateau large igneous province. This ~1.5 km thick volcaniclastic upper crust readily dewaters with subduction but retains half of its fluid content upon reaching regions with well-characterized slow slip. We suggest that volcaniclastic-rich upper crust at volcanic plateaus and seamounts is a major source of water that contributes to the fluid budget in subduction zones and may drive fluid overpressures along the megathrust that give rise to frequent shallow slow slip. 
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  5. null (Ed.)
  6. Abstract Phyllosilicates weaken faults due to the formation of shear fabrics. Although the impacts of clay abundance and fabric on frictional strength, sliding stability, and porosity of faults are well studied, their influence on elastic properties is less known, though they are key factors for fault stiffness. We document the role that fabric and consolidation play in elastic properties and show that smectite content is the most important factor determining whether fabric or porosity controls the elastic response of faults. We conducted a suite of shear experiments on synthetic smectite‐quartz fault gouges (10–100 wt% smectite) and sediment incoming to the Sumatra subduction zone. We monitoredVp,Vs, friction, porosity, shear and bulk moduli. We find that mechanical and elastic properties for gouges with abundant smectite are almost entirely controlled by fabric formation (decreasing mechanical and elastic properties with shear). Though fabrics control the elastic response of smectite‐poor gouges over intermediate shear strains, porosity is the primary control throughout the majority of shearing. Elastic properties vary systematically with smectite content: High smectite gouges have values ofVp ~ 1,300–1,800 m/s,Vs ~ 900–1,100 m/s,K ~ 1–4 GPa, andG ~ 1–2 GPa, and low smectite gouges have values ofVp ~ 2,300–2,500 m/s,Vs ~ 1,200–1,300 m/s,K ~ 5–8 GPa, andG ~ 2.5–3 GPa. We find that, even in smectite‐poor gouges, shear fabric also affects stiffness and elastic moduli, implying that while smectite abundance plays a clear role in controlling gouge properties, other fine‐grained and platy clay minerals may produce similar behavior through their control on the development of fabrics and thin shear surfaces. 
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  7. Abstract The Pāpaku Fault Zone, drilled at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1518, is an active splay fault in the frontal accretionary wedge of the Hikurangi Margin. In logging‐while‐drilling data, the 33‐m‐thick fault zone exhibits mixed modes of deformation associated with a trend of downward decreasing density,P‐wave velocity, and resistivity. Methane hydrate is observed from ~30 to 585 m below seafloor (mbsf), including within and surrounding the fault zone. Hydrate accumulations are vertically discontinuous and occur throughout the entire logged section at low to moderate saturation in silty and sandy centimeter‐thick layers. We argue that the hydrate distribution implies that the methane is not sourced from fluid flow along the fault but instead by local diffusion. This, combined with geophysical observations and geochemical measurements from Site U1518, suggests that the fault is not a focused migration pathway for deeply sourced fluids and that the near‐seafloor Pāpaku Fault Zone has little to no active fluid flow. 
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